Penn State
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
146  Colin Abert JR 31:59
208  Timothy McGowan SR 32:11
420  John McGowan JR 32:40
447  Andrew Sell SO 32:43
468  Bobby Hill SR 32:45
778  Ben Bumgarner FR 33:20
1,088  Billy McDevitt SO 33:45
1,711  Brady Bobbitt SO 34:38
1,762  William Loevner SO 34:43
1,987  Jordan Makins JR 35:05
National Rank #47 of 315
Mid-Atlantic Region Rank #3 of 32
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 26.3%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.4%


Regional Champion 10.7%
Top 5 in Regional 83.6%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Colin Abert Timothy McGowan John McGowan Andrew Sell Bobby Hill Ben Bumgarner Billy McDevitt Brady Bobbitt William Loevner Jordan Makins
OSU Cowboy Jamboree (Orange) 09/30 824 32:00 32:15 32:50 32:33 32:53 33:40 34:37 34:40
Penn State National Open 10/13 824 32:00 32:24 32:38 32:30 32:52 33:12 34:16 34:21 35:52
Big Ten Championship 10/29 756 31:46 32:05 32:43 32:35 32:43 34:38 34:21 35:13
Mid-Atlantic Region Championships 11/10 845 32:14 32:11 32:24 32:54 33:07 33:35 33:52





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 26.3% 28.6 721 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.8 2.1 2.8 3.9 5.0 7.7
Region Championship 100% 3.8 122 10.7 15.6 18.6 20.4 18.4 11.1 4.4 0.8 0.1 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Abert 70.4% 119.0 0.1
Timothy McGowan 49.1% 144.2
John McGowan 26.6% 202.6
Andrew Sell 26.4% 207.0
Bobby Hill 26.4% 207.3
Ben Bumgarner 26.8% 241.2
Billy McDevitt 28.2% 247.3


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Colin Abert 4.3 6.8 18.4 12.7 9.8 7.5 7.2 5.7 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.1 1.7 1.7 0.9 1.8 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4
Timothy McGowan 8.6 0.8 5.1 7.2 8.4 7.5 7.3 6.2 4.8 5.2 4.6 4.0 2.9 3.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2
John McGowan 28.8 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 2.2 1.8 2.3 3.0 2.2 2.4 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.6
Andrew Sell 31.8 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.8
Bobby Hill 32.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.3 2.6 2.0 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4
Ben Bumgarner 63.8
Billy McDevitt 88.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 10.7% 100.0% 10.7 10.7 1
2 15.6% 100.0% 15.6 15.6 2
3 18.6% 18.6 3
4 20.4% 20.4 4
5 18.4% 18.4 5
6 11.1% 11.1 6
7 4.4% 4.4 7
8 0.8% 0.8 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 0.2% 0.2 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
Total 100% 26.3% 10.7 15.6 73.7 26.3 0.0




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Villanova 2.0% 1.0 0.0
Nebraska 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0